Abstract

Scenarios are a way of creating alternative pictures of possible and desirable futures in the field of public health and health care. In preparing scenarios use can be made of models, especially mathematical models. Firstly, a review of the use of mathematical models in disease epidemiology studies by the STG is given. The STG is the Steering committee on Future health scenarios in the Netherlands. Secondly, an introduction in modelling, especially mathematical modelling, is given. The following topics are to be discussed: a system, a model, the cycle of building models, markov models and the validation of models. Thirdly, a review of models currently used in describing demography, disease epidemiology, risk and health care is presented. Finally, the link between mathematical modelling and the methodological aspects of scenarios is to be discussed.