Abstract

Every two years the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) brings out an economic outlook for the medium term (MT scenarios), i.e. the next four years. For the 1997 MT publication the RIVM has quantified the corresponding environmental effects of these economic developments, or more specifically the effects for the environmental themes of global change, acidification, eutrophication and waste disposal. The methodological and quantitative underpinning of the environmental calculations are presented in this report, which can be considered as the environmental background document for the MT scenarios. The following main conclusions were drawn: (1) although economic growth will continue, emissions of acidifying and eutrophying substances will decrease in the coming years, while the production of waste will increase; due to more recycling, the total amount of waste to be incinerated, to be disposed of in landfills or to be discharged into the water will decrease; (2) the emissions of CO2 will continue to grow with the economy, although at a slower pace, while policy aims at a reduction of 3% in 2000 compared to 1990; (3) strong efforts will be necessary to realise the current policy objectives for the themes of acidification, eutrophication and CO2; (4) for every extra percent of economic growth in the future, there will be roughly an increase in environmental pressure of 0.5% to 1%.