Abstract

Water management of the Rhine and Meuse is surrounded by major uncertainties. The central question is then: given the uncertainties, what is the best water management strategy? This raises the need for integrated scenarios that consider possible futures in a coherent and consistent way. In the present NRP project a scenario study was carried out in which physical modelling has been combined with socio-cultural theory. Existing climate, land use and socio-economic scenarios, as well as water management strategies have been structured using the Perspectives method. This resulted in integrated scenarios for water management, each representing a different view on the future, together with the according water management style. These were put in a scenario matrix with combinations of world views and management styles, both where these match and mis-match. Using a suite of existing modelling tools the implications of each scenario for the water systems were evaluated. Finally, a comparison of different water management styles under different possible futures was made, showing the risk, cost and benefits of different strategies.