Abstract

The potential effects of Global Climate Change on biodiversity at the level of genomic variation, species, and ecosystems are very complex and poorly understood. This programming study briefly summarises current knowledge, and analyses which contributions the systematic biology and ecology community in the Netherlands can make to elucidate some of the problems involved. It is recommended to focus on the following questions: 1) What are the effects of current and potential climate change on spatial and temporal distribution patterns and on the existence of species and ecosystems? and 2) Which biological mechanisms are involved in the responses of species and ecosystems to climate change? Two complementary approaches are advocated: a) analyses of long-term data sets comprising biogeographical and climate observations and measurements, and b) experimental work on a number of species or functional groups aimed at the investigation of their physiological or phenological responses to climate change, and their migration or dispersal potential. The study should include well-known plant, animal and/or micro-organism species and/or functional groups, from a temperate, terrestrial ecosystem (possibly including transition zones between land and water) in the Netherlands or adjacent parts of NW Europe. The programme should generate input data for predictive models based on climate change scenarios. The importance of an integrated and interdisciplinary research programme, complementary to other national and international research initiatives is stressed.