Abstract

Every four years, on behalf of the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport, RIVM looks ahead to developments in public health and health services. Because of the early elections that will be held in November 2023 and the subsequent need to form a new government, it is publishing the current insights into the future ahead of time. The full Public Health Foresight Study will be published in June 2024 (VTV-2024). This will contain results that are not yet known and suggest potential courses for action.

The insights relate to the future of our public health and health services in the period to 2050. They have been distilled into three important missions to be completed along the way. The first is to find ways to improve the health of all people in the Netherlands. Our lifestyles, such as how much exercise we take and how healthily we eat, have a major effect on our health. A significant part of the Dutch population lead unhealthy lifestyles. Many people are overweight already, and their number will increase in the future. In addition, some people have poorer health outcomes because of the circumstances in which they work and live. The exact nature of these outcomes differs per situation. Poverty, for instance, has different consequences for single older men than for families with young children.

The second mission is to enable good-quality care and support. Demand for care will increase in the years to come, mainly because increasing numbers of people live to a greatly advanced age. Care demands are also becoming more complicated, because people suffer from multiple health problems at once. At the same time, shortages of professionals and informal carers will continue to become more acute. This makes it important to ponder the questions of what constitutes good-quality care and whether we can deliver it in other ways than we currently do. A key consideration here is what ‘quality of life’ means to people.

The third mission is to discover how the living environment can improve health. Climate change poses a daunting challenge in this regard. That said, it has become clear that the need to adapt to a different climate also offers opportunities for creating a healthier living environment. As an example, cool spots with greenery and water help to capture heat, while at the same time encouraging people to go outside, exercise and get together. Again, it is important that all people in the Netherlands have access to this.