Abstract

In order to meet the Paris Climate Agreement (2015), the Dutch government is committed to substantially reducing the emission of CO2. The main target is the total cessation of the use of fossil energy sources. The measures taken to realise this can have unintended positive and negative effects on our health, our living and working conditions (‘safety’) and nature in the Netherlands. RIVM has investigated these effects.

It would be better for our health, our safety and nature to stop using fossil energy sources. On average, people would live slightly longer; this effect is relevant but not very significant. Furthermore, less nitrogen would be deposited on the soil, which would be better for nature and the diversity of plant and animal species.

These conclusions are largely the same as those drawn on the basis of the Concept Climate Agreement by RIVM in 2019. The Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy commissioned both analyses. RIVM recommends continued careful monitoring of the effects of climate measures in the future.

The greatest health benefits will be achieved by improved air quality. A decrease in the number of internal combustion engines used will result in a reduction in the nitrogen oxides and fine particles emitted to the air and, thus, to people being less likely to develop asthma, lung disorders and cardiovascular diseases. In the Netherlands, air pollution shortens our average life expectancy by nine months. This period will decrease by 2% by 2030 due to the measures stipulated by the Climate Agreement.

Ambient noise will also become lower if fewer internal combustion engines are used. Electric motors are quieter, particularly at low speeds in built-up areas. By 2030, vehicular traffic on these roads will make 1 decibel less noise and, by 2050, 3 to 4 decibel less noise. This will reduce traffic-induced sleep disturbance by a third by 2050.

In the workplace, the most significant benefit from the Climate Agreement is that, by 2050, equipment will no longer produce diesel smoke. This will reduce the incidence of lung cancer among workers, making a 3% difference in the total damage to health due to exposure of workers to harmful substances at work.

The major benefit in terms of safety is that carbon monoxide poisoning will no longer be caused by natural gas installations in homes. There will be 10 to 50 fewer deaths every year by 2050 if these installations are no longer used.

A rough estimate indicates that at best up to 10% less nitrogen will be deposited on the soil by 2050 as a result of the Climate Agreement. A more thorough analysis is required to be able to determine this figure more accurately.

This report is one of three studies on the consequences for health of climate policy. Together they show that climate policy is not only beneficial in limiting climate change but is also beneficial to health.