Abstract

The Dutch government wants to reduce the number of people who smoke, are overweight or consume excessive amounts of alcohol. To this end, the National Prevention Agreement was drawn up in 2018, with goals for 2040. In this context, the government made agreements with over 70 different parties. RIVM has calculated whether the agreements, as they are currently being implemented, will be enough to reach the goals for 2040. RIVM has calculated what the situation will look like in 2040 both with and without the agreements.

The calculations show that the agreements will result in slightly less people smoking in 2040, compared to the situation without the agreements. However, the agreements will not result in the goals being met. More and stricter measures will be necessary to meet these goals. For example, additional price increases could be introduced, alongside the previously agreed increases.

The goal for 2040 is to reduce the number of adults who smoke to less than 5 per cent and to reduce the number of young people smoking to zero. According to the calculations, the agreements will result in an estimated 10 per cent of adults smoking. Without agreements, this would be 13 per cent. The agreements will also result in around 4 per cent of young people (between 12 and 16 years old) smoking in 2040, compared to 5 per cent without the agreements. Making cigarettes and roll-your-own tobacco more expensive would be the most effective way of getting people to quit smoking or preventing them from ever beginning. Vaping was not included in this study.