Asselt MBA van ,
Middelkoop H ,
Klooster SA van 't ,
Haasnoot M ,
Deursen WPA van ,
Gemert M van ,
Kwadijk JCJ ,
Buiteveld H ,
Konnen GP ,
Valkering P ,
Rotmans J
168 p
in Dutch
2001
Toon Nederlands
English Abstract Water management of the Rhine and Meuse is surrounded
by major uncertainties. The central question is then: given the
uncertainties, what is the best water management strategy? This raises the
need for integrated scenarios that consider possible futures in a coherent
and consistent way. In the present NRP project a scenario study was carried
out in which physical modelling has been combined with socio-cultural
theory. Existing climate, land use and socio-economic scenarios, as well as
water management strategies have been structured using the Perspectives
method. This resulted in integrated scenarios for water management, each
representing a different view on the future, together with the according
water management style. These were put in a scenario matrix with
combinations of world views and management styles, both where these match
and mis-match. Using a suite of existing modelling tools the implications
of each scenario for the water systems were evaluated. Finally, a
comparison of different water management styles under different possible
futures was made, showing the risk, cost and benefits of different
strategies.