English Abstract The research effort started with a geographical
inventory of all tropical and sub-tropical drylands to map the diversity in
aridity, land degradation, population densities and urbanisation of the
world's drylands and to put the drylands of West Africa in perspective. It
also guided a choice of in-depth study regions within West Africa. The
scenario analysis shows a wide variety of outcomes, but with rather strong
suggestions that most of dryland West Africa is expected to become a lot
dryer. The consequences of these projections are an increase in high-risk
environments for agriculture, including a southward shift of the arid and
semi-arid zones. Changes in rainfall distribution could mean an additional
stress on agricultural production in these areas. Simulation studies
clearly reveal a shift of the onset of the growing season and lower yield
levels. To understand farmers' behaviour in West African drylands in
preparing ('insuring') for dryer conditions and for agro-climatological
droughts, in coping with droughts and adverse production conditions, and in
adapting to changed conditions afterwards, we looked at their performance
before, during and after drought years in the past identifying several
adaptation strategies and policy recommendations. The conclusions don't
look very grim, contrary to the much-painted 'picture of doom' for Africa.
West Africa's shock experience in the 1970s and 1980s did have the result
that it became much better prepared for possible new drought shocks, and
that its agricultural production performance in the 1990s (when rainfall
became considerably better) improved. The future for the Sahel is not
necessarily gloomy. However, system breakdown can occur during droughts.
One may fear that in those situations religion will be used as a major
catalyst for political support to exclusionist claims (Islam versus
Christianity and religious sub-groups versus sub-groups) and may result in
massive violence and rapid deterioration of all local livelihood options,
resulting in a large death toll and mass migration southward and
overseas.