Definitiestudie: Geintegreerd Bron- Risicomodel voor Radon

[Definition study: Source-risk model for radon.]


A definition study for the development of a model describing the complete chain ; source -> exhalation -> dispersion -> exposure -> effect/risk for radon is performed. The purpose of a source-risk model is to support policy making on radon mitigation by comparing effects of various policy options and to enable optimisation of counter measures applied to different parts of the source-risk chain. There are several advantages developing and using a source-risk model. - Risk calculations are standardized. The calculations are done with most appropriate models available at a moment. Parameter values are used consistently in the entire source-risk chain. - The effects of measures applied to different parts of the source-risk chain can be better compared because interactions are included. - Sensitivity analyses can be used to determine the most important parameters within the total source-risk chain. After making up an inventory of processes and sources to be included in the source-risk chain, we investigated the models presently available in the Netherlands by interviewing several owners of models. The models were screened for completeness, validation and operational status. The investigation made clear that, by choosing for each part of the source-risk chain the most convenient model, a source-risk chain model for radon may be realised. However, the calculation of dose out of the radon concentrations and the status of the validation of most models should be improved. Calculations with the proposed source-risk model will give estimations with a large uncertainty at the moment. Still, realisation of the proposed source-risk model is recommended because the investigations made clear that the use of a source-risk model will have a surplus value over the use of single models. For further development of the source-risk model an interaction between the source-risk model and experimental research is recommended.

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